On 1st April 2020, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released a model estimating the progression of Covid-19 within the USA and the number of deaths likely to be suffered as a result by its population.
This mean of this projection predicted single-digit deaths per day by 1st July 2020 after a peak of over 2,500 deaths per day by mid-April. Total deaths were predicted to reach approximately 94,000.
My chart above shows the mean IHME projection in blue, and what actually happened in orange (with a 7-day trend line added to smooth out some of the fluctuations caused by delayed weekend reporting).
The USA managed to avoid reaching the projected high peak of daily deaths, but the number of deaths per day already started to exceed those of the model before the end of April, and consistently stay well above the model from then on.
On 14th May, the USA death total overtook the projected death total, and by 23rd May, it overtook the projection for total USA deaths.
By mid-July when the model was predicting zero deaths due to Covid, the USA was a few weeks into its second wave, and the daily death rates reported were starting to increase again.
As of today (11th Aug), over 150,000 people have lost their lives in the USA of Covid-19, and daily deaths are averaging 1,000. The only good news is that the second wave appears to have peaked as case numbers and test positivity are heading downwards.